370
FXUS64 KBRO 190453
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1053 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN US BY MID WEEK. AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER TEXAS, CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, AROUND 50%, LOOK
TO BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS
AROUND 30-40% FURTHER INLAND. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING OFF
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WHICH MAY REQUIRE BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS, RESULTING IN ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 44 71 59 73 / 0 0 0 20
HARLINGEN 39 72 54 73 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 42 75 58 74 / 0 0 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 36 74 55 71 / 0 0 0 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 52 68 63 70 / 0 0 10 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 44 71 58 72 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE
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