601
FXUS64 KBRO 192310 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
510 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TODAY AND REACHING THE 80S BY LATE WEEK.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN US MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 20-50% CHANCE (HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST).
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AROUND NOON BEFORE PLUNGING INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S AND 50S. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO
THE 30S WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S. BASED ON THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BACK THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE RAINFALL/WET SURFACES COINCIDE WITH THE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT ICING IN
SPOTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. RIGHT NOW PROBABILITY IS
VERY LOW (<10%) BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING AND CONTINUE TO UPDATE WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH OVERCAST SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
TUESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CAUTION, MAINLY ON THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. NEXT WEEKEND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 59 74 62 77 / 0 20 20 40
HARLINGEN 54 74 58 78 / 0 10 20 30
MCALLEN 59 74 61 78 / 0 10 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 55 73 59 75 / 0 20 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 70 65 72 / 0 20 30 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 58 72 61 76 / 0 20 20 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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