184
FXUS64 KBRO 201048
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
448 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 448 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- MID-WEEK FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION.
- WEEKEND COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT, COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH, WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND, WHEN A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION, THE BEST IN WEEKS, ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, MILD DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS WILL OCCUR, WITH THE
FIRST COLD FRONT NOT MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
ABRUPTLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT, WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. IN FACT, OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A FREEZE WATCH AND SUBSEQUENT FREEZE
WARNING BOTH NIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY, IF WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH,
WIND CHILL MAY BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE 12Z TAF CYCLE UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ELEVATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. WINDS COULD TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE SATURDAY PASSAGE OF A ROBUST COLD FRONT.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 63 77 62 / 10 20 40 20
HARLINGEN 74 58 76 57 / 10 20 40 10
MCALLEN 74 61 77 60 / 10 30 30 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 59 77 56 / 10 40 30 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 66 72 65 / 10 30 50 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 61 75 60 / 10 20 50 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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