198
FXUS64 KBRO 210423
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1023 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 915 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- FIRST ARCTIC COLD FRONT OF 2026 ARRIVES SATURDAY.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR 60 TO
72 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHOWERS, LIGHT RAIN, AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE WEEKEND ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MOST
INTERESTING PRECIPITATION QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE IN
FROZEN FORM, AND AS OF THIS WRITING, FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE EXIST IN THE FORECAST WITHIN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS PRECIPITATION TYPE, AN ICE STORM WARNING OR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE COLDEST VALUES ARE PROGGED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THE VALUES THAT CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, A FREEZE WATCH AND SUBSEQUENT FREEZE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AND SURFACE WINDS MAY ALSO PROMPT
THE NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WIND CHILL EFFECT.
FINALLY, STRONG WINDS AND CHURNED, ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CREATE A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR WILL OCCUR AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TWO
TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH TAF, AND ARE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LONGER-RANGE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
BENIGN AND UNREMARKABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST UNTIL THE SATURDAY PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INITIATE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEADILY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 75 62 79 / 20 50 20 10
HARLINGEN 58 76 57 79 / 20 40 10 0
MCALLEN 61 77 61 82 / 30 40 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 77 58 82 / 30 30 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 71 64 73 / 20 60 30 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 73 60 76 / 20 50 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION & MARINE...TOMASELLI-66
UPPER AIR...IRISH-65
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