688
FXUS64 KBRO 212326 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
526 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- FIRST ARCTIC COLD FRONT OF 2026 ARRIVES SATURDAY, BUT THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE ON SATURDAY IS UNCERTAIN.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA ARE EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW
DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT PRESENT, TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. YESTERDAY'S MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WOULD COME
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY. TODAY, HOWEVER, A FEW OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO AND THE NAM (WHICH TENDS TO HANDLE
COLD FRONTS BETTER FOR OUR AREA) HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO SATURDAY EVENING. IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
ACCORDING TO ORIGINAL GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUMMET
MID-DAY. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES INDEED SLOW DOWN TO
THE EVENINGS, SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID-70S BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL.
REGARDLESS OF THE FRONT'S TIMING, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS PARTICULARLY COULD SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHEN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REACH
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT.
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (20-40%) OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES DON'T APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED ARRIVE LATER IN
THE EVENING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A VERY LOW, BUT NOT NON-
ZERO, CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW THAT DESI GUIDANCE
DOESN'T EVEN PICK UP ON IT. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL SHOWING UP AS A NON-
ZERO POSSIBILITY IN THE NBM GUIDANCE, SO IT IS WORTH MENTIONING. IF
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN COMBINATION WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES, POSING AN EXPOSURE RISK FOR ANYONE SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS. NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND
THE LOWER 20S FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING ON TUESDAY. PEOPLE, PLANTS, AND PETS WILL
NEED TO BE PROTECTED ON THESE NIGHTS. SEA TURTLE STUNNINGS IN THE
BAY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COOL.
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING (WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT)
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POSSIBLE SEA TURTLE IMPACTS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-TREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AT AREA BEACHES. RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK WITH FOG AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 63 80 65 / 60 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 74 58 79 61 / 60 20 0 0
MCALLEN 76 61 82 65 / 50 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 55 82 63 / 50 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 64 73 67 / 70 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 61 78 63 / 60 20 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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