371
FXUS64 KBRO 221144 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
544 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- FIRST ARCTIC COLD FRONT OF 2026 ARRIVES SATURDAY, WITH THE
LATEST TIMING GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A VERY LOW BUT NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW
DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A 500MB LOW DROPS DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST TO BAJA BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEING PULLED EAST ACROSS TEXAS BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, LEAVING ZONAL 500MB FLOW INTO MID NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC AIR POURS SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A 1046MB RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PUSHES A MEANDERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE
SATURDAY, AND SQUEEZES A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO
SUNDAY, ENHANCING CAA LOCALLY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY,
WITH A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
SUNDAY. THE LATER TREND IN FROPA HAS CONTINUED AGAIN WITH THIS
MODEL RUN, BUT HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH NBM TO MINIMIZE
ANY WARMING BIAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE NAMS REACH. LOWS ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS NOW FALL TO NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 50S, WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING STILL DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL INLAND
LOCATIONS, NEAR 25 DEGREES ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
MAY ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH CLEARING
SKIES SETTING UP ANOTHER BELOW-FREEZING NIGHT FOR THE RANCHLANDS
AND UPPER VALLEY INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE LAST GASP OF CAA
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL BY MID-WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LOWS.
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BRING A NON-ZERO, BUT VERY LOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS. OVERRUNNING ALONG THE COAST MAY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WIND CHILL
VALUES DROP TOWARDS 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS SUNDAY, WITH
VALUES BELOW 15 DEGREES MONDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR TO
BELOW 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY, WITH VALUES BELOW 20 DEGREES MONDAY.
A FLURRY OF WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THURSDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND, INCLUDING FREEZE, HARD FREEZE, AND EXTREME COLD WATCHES.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FREEZE,
HARD FREEZE, AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY ALL BE ISSUED.
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AND
STATEMENTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT CAA DOWN THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
COLD-STUNNED SEA TURTLES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE BAY GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 50
DEGREES FROM DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PELICANS
OFTEN LAND ON COASTAL BRIDGES DURING THESE EVENTS, ESPECIALLY WHEN
THERE IS LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE, SUCH AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
FINALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MID-MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS
RETURNS LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
WITH ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 64 81 69 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 82 65 85 69 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 81 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 66 75 68 / 10 0 10 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 63 80 66 / 10 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...63-KC
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