779
FXUS64 KBRO 251711
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
* FIRST ARCTIC COLD FRONT OF 2026 IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED CURRENTLY.
* THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
* A FREEZE WARNING AND EXTREME COLD WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT. PLAN TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES
AND LIMIT EXPOSURE TO ALL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD FOR TIPS ON HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF
AND OTHERS.
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER, BUT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE MARINE ZONES BY TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
DECIDED TO LOWER THE MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TODAY DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) TAKING PLACE AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY A RATHER STEEP
INVERSION, ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING'S 12Z BRO SOUNDING. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTH, DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S, WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WORKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CRP CWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
INTO TEXAS EARLY THIS WEEK AND SHIFTING EAST BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING DIP NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS SUBSTANTIALLY ON SUNDAY AGAIN FROM NBM WITH CAA
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY WIN OUT AGAINST ANY SUNSHINE OR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR RANCHLAND LOCATIONS BY THE LATE EVENING,
BOTTOMING OUT BELOW 25 DEGREES ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE RGV. HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INLAND.
CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ANOTHER BELOW-
FREEZING NIGHT, EVEN COLDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT, FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE LAST GASP OF CAA AND VERY
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY FRIDAY, BEFORE DROPPING OFF INTO THE 50S
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND UPPER VALLEY WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND WORK EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY HANGING AROUND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INTO MID-
MORNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, AND KENEDY
COUNTIES FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT, WITH NEARLY EVERY MODEL
MAINTAINING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL POPS SHOVE OFFSHORE,
BUT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO COME IN COOLER THAN MOST MODELS SO
FAR THIS EVENING. NAM GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO SORT OF GET
WITH THE PROGRAM AND ARW TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND NIGHT HAVE
SEEMED PRETTY CLOSE AS WELL, LENDING CONFIDENCE TO A COOLER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD THAN NBM. USED A BLEND OF NBM10, NBM25,
ARW, NBM, AND HAND EDITED THE REST.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS EVENT STILL CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS AND COLD IMPACTS TO PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP BELOW 25 DEGREES
ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS EARLY SUNDAY, WITH VALUES BELOW 15 DEGREES
EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RGV EARLY SUNDAY AND BELOW 20 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS JIM HOGG, BROOKS,
INLAND AND COASTAL KENEDY, NORTHERN HIDALGO, AND INLAND WILLACY
COUNTIES. CURRENTLY THERE ARE ALSO FREEZE WARNINGS AND EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZE
AND EXTREME COLD WATCHES OR WARNINGS NECESSARY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT.
THE PERSISTENT CAA DOWN THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL RESULT IN COLD-
STUNNED SEA TURTLES, ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE BAY GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 50
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PELICANS
OFTEN LAND ON COASTAL BRIDGES DURING THESE EVENTS, ESPECIALLY WHEN
THERE IS LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE, SUCH AS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY....LATEST SFC AND SATELLITE OBS SHOWED AN OVC
MVFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE WITH CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN 1,000-
1,600 FEET AGL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THIS MORNING'S 12Z
BRO SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
890 MB, WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW (MVFR) STRATUS
THIS MORNING. GIVEN HOW STEEP THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS, THESE
CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCOURING OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND HEIGHTS TO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENTS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH COOL AND DRY AIR STILL ADVECTING INTO THE REGION,
EXPECT FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO. LATER
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES, BUT THE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. BLUSTERY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS RETURNING DURING THE DAY AS MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE. PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
UNTIL A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS MID TO LATE WEEK
OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY, RETURNING
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE
INTO MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 49 30 49 32 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 50 26 50 28 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 54 32 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 52 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 49 38 50 44 / 20 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 48 29 49 34 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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