923
FXUS64 KBRO 251941
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
141 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
* FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE 2025/2026 WINTER SEASON HAS ARRIVED.
* THE COLDEST AIR (RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES) WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING/HARD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME WIND CHILLS.
* A FREEZE WARNING AND EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING AND EXTREME
COLD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
PLAN TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES AND LIMIT EXPOSURE
TO ALL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD FOR TIPS ON HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF
AND OTHERS.
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE ALSO IN EFFECT.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD AND
IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT'S
SET TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE 2025/2026 WINTER SEASON, AND THE
COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 21-22, 2025 HAS ARRIVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE
WINTER SEASON OF HAVING AT LEAST ONE ARCTIC BLAST OR SIGNIFICANT
COLD SNAP (2022/23, 2023/24, 2024/25). A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
DRIVEN BY A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) AND A POSITIVE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION (+PNA) HAS RESULTED IN THE
COLLAPSE OF A POLAR VORTEX (PV) LOBE, WHICH EXPLAINS THIS
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAK/WINTER STORM THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE NATION AT THIS TIME. MOVING FORWARD TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF
JANUARY/FIRST PART OF FEBRUARY, MEDIUM RANGE COMPUTER MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MEANING THAT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL COLD AIR INTRUSIONS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. IN FACT, WE'RE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER (SECOND) COLD SHOT TAKING
PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (JAN 30-FEB 2
TIMEFRAME).
WE START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY WHERE I LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING HANGING TOUGH
UNDER A COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) REGIME IN PLACE. A RATHER STEEP
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO ABOUT 890 MB SEEN FROM THIS
MORNING'S 12Z BRO SOUNDING, SUPPORTS THE STUBBORN OVC LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING. IN TIME, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EXPECT
FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION GRADUALLY ERODES/BREAKS DOWN AND
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WITH
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) STREAMING INTO THE REGION ON
BLUSTERY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH,
LITTLE WARMING WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY WITH HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
BY TONIGHT, THE 1030-1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS (NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLES). ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON CLEARING SKIES ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
(CAA) WILL RESULT IN RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING (TEMPERATURES <32F DEGREES) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. IN FACT, WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES <28F FOR 2+ HOURS) ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. NBM HAS NEAR 100% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW 32F TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. NBM HAS A
MEDIUM-HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 32F
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE NBM
HAS A MEDIUM-HIGH (30-70%) CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN CAMERON, NORTHERN HIDALGO, NORTHERN STARR,
AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOUTH
OF THAT CORRIDOR.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TONIGHT,
RESPECTIVELY WITH THE FULL COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION REGIME LOCKED
INTO PLACE OVER THE REGION. WITH SIMILAR HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT AT RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD BREAKING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS). FINALLY, WITH WINDS NOT FULLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT
OR MONDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES (REAL FEEL TEMPERATURES) ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ON BOTH NIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. 20S ALONG THE COAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A
SECOND FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER EXTREME COLD WARNING AND/OR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 1030-1040 MB SFC HIGH AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
CENTRAL/EAST U.S. TROUGH DEPARTS FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE MODERATION OR BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
RGV AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 40S/50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES (POPS) ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SOME WEAK
MOISTURE INFLUX AND WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ON EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARBY COULD
DRIVE UP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY, WE HAVE 20-30% POPS THURSDAY NIGHT CONFINED ALONG AND
EAST OF IH-69C. ON FRIDAY, THESE POPS INCREASE TO 30-50% AREAWIDE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. FINALLY, BY
SATURDAY, POPS DECREASE BACK TO 20-30% AS THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH. DURING
THIS TIME, WE WILL BE IN A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, DUE TO LOW CAPE VALUES AND OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY
VALUES, WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (JUST
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS). WE'LL KEEP WATCH ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE WITH
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO TRIGGER ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR THUNDER.
AS TOUCHED ON EARLIER WITH THE DESCRIPTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN REGIME (I.E. -AO/+PNA) WE'RE IN, FORECAST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING YET ANOTHER (SECOND) COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON SOME
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, THIS COLD FRONT COULD
YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST PARTS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS ARCTIC AIR ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST
U.S. GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD AIR WILL PENETRATE AND THE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE FULL
FETCH OF ARCTIC COLD AIR (I.E. OVER THE PLAINS VS. EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER). THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY....LATEST SFC AND SATELLITE OBS SHOWED AN OVC
MVFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE WITH CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN 1,000-
1,600 FEET AGL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THIS MORNING'S 12Z
BRO SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
890 MB, WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW (MVFR) STRATUS
THIS MORNING. GIVEN HOW STEEP THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS, THESE
CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCOURING OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND HEIGHTS TO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENTS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH COOL AND DRY AIR STILL ADVECTING INTO THE REGION,
EXPECT FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLUSTERY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO. LATER
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES, BUT THE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. BLUSTERY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS RETURNING DURING THE DAY AS MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE. PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 6 PM CST MONDAY
EVENING. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MARINE
CONDITIONS COULD YET AGAIN BECOME ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE 2025/2026 WINTER SEASON, AND THE
COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 21-22, 2025 HAS ARRIVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING ON
CLEARER SKIES ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL
RESULT IN RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BELOW ARE
THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN,
AND MCALLEN.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 32F DEGREES IN 1940
HARLINGEN: 32F DEGREES IN 1938 & 1940
MCALLEN: 35F DEGREES IN 1966
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 32F DEGREES IN 1948
HARLINGEN: 30F DEGREES IN 1966
MCALLEN: 30F DEGREES IN 1966
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 30 49 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 26 50 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 32 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 27 52 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 38 50 44 61 / 0 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 29 49 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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