433
FXUS64 KBRO 260441
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1041 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES 20-25
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
OVERNIGHT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
RECORD LOWS BEING MET, OR BROKEN, TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ALL OF
INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, EXCEPT FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS, AND AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 3 AM (LATE TONIGHT)
TO 8 AM MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
- ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING AND/OR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
- GRADUAL WARMUP MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING DUE TO A POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
- NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND POSSIBLE FRONT AND COASTAL LOW MAY
ADVECT WELL BELOW AVERAGE, POSSIBLY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES,
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT BECOME ZONAL ON MONDAY AS THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LARGE AND POWERFUL WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST, FINALLY
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAINTAINS
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE 1030-1040 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LOW
(15%) CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RIDGING, NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES RESUME BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AGAIN ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER, CLOUDS BUILD AND WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CHANCES OF RAIN COULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON FRIDAY, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST, AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTH. CHANCES OF RAIN
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTH.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
(MINUS THE ISLANDS) UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING AS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOWS MINIMIZE IN THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS
30S ALONG/NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE, WHICH IS 20-25 DEGREES F
BELOW NORMAL. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE MET OR BROKEN ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AS
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH OR HIGHER,
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION FROM 3 AM MONDAY MORNING/LATE TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM
MONDAY MORNING AS APPARENT/"REAL FEEL" TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
TEENS INLAND AND 20S ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS MAY FEEL AS COLD AS 9 OR 10 DEGREES F DURING THE HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SIMILAR VALUES AS TONIGHT, PERHAPS EVEN A
TOUCH COLDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ONCE AGAIN BE MET OR BROKEN ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CALMER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY
NIGHT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 15
DEGREES F ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WHILE PORTIONS, OR ALL, OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD FALL TO NEAR
OR BELOW 20 DEGREES F, WHICH WOULD WARRANT ANOTHER EXTREME COLD
WARNING. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INCONSISTENT AS THE SREF
INDICATES A 40%, AT BEST, OF EITHER SCENARIO OCCURRING WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS WARMER. OTHERWISE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD SUFFICE
ACROSS INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN EITHER.
IN GENERAL, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH: 40S/50S ON MONDAY, 50S/60S ON TUESDAY, LOW/MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND 60S/70S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S/40S
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY A 30% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 32 DEGREES F IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ACCORDING TO THE NBM (OTHER GUIDANCE IS WARMER).
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY FALL TO THE 40S/50S. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY TIME PERIODS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITHIN 5 DEGREES F OR SO. FOLLOWING, COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DROP
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AGAIN.
DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(FOR WAVES OF 6 FT OR HIGHER) AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT
KBRO, CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, PICKING UP A FEW KNOTS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE REST 06Z TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS, CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH (7-12 FEET) SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING
GENTLE AND OUT OF THE EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SLIGHT (1-2
FEET) SEAS. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO A LOW (15-
30%) CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GENTLE WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT SEAS. WINDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH ROUGHENING SEAS AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND/OR SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 30 49 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 26 50 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 32 52 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 27 52 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 38 50 44 61 / 0 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 29 49 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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