766
FXUS64 KBRO 261900
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
* FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE 2025/2026 WINTER SEASON IS UPON US.
* ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING; WIDESPREAD
FREEZING/HARD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED/
* A FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PLAN TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS,
PLANTS, AND PIPES AND LIMIT OUTSIDE EXPOSURE. PLEASE REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD FOR TIPS ON HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF
AND OTHERS.
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT TILL THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.
* RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT'S SET TO ARRIVE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND THE COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 21-
22, 2025 IS UPON US. LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES (20S/30S) ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
UNDER A HARD FREEZE. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES (BROWNSVILLE BRO, HARLINGEN HRL, AND MCALLEN MFE)
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED THE 1030-1040
MB ARCTIC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH THE CENTER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS FINALLY
BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION AND RETREAT TO THE NORTH. IN
ANTICIPATION OF THE VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT, WE'VE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS FROM 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, DRIVEN BY A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) AND
A POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION (+PNA) HAS RESULTED IN
THE COLLAPSE OF A POLAR VORTEX (PV) LOBE, WHICH EXPLAINS THIS
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAK/WINTER STORM THAT'S IMPACTED MUCH OF
THE NATION. MOVING FORWARD TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF JANUARY/FIRST
PART OF FEBRUARY, MEDIUM RANGE COMPUTER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO DEPICT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MEANING THAT THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL COLD AIR INTRUSIONS TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AT LEAST. IN FACT, WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER (SECOND) COLD SHOT TAKING PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (JAN 30-FEB 2 TIMEFRAME).
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE IN MANY PLACES TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S (WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS) UNDER SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR TONIGHT, SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON
TOP OF ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RECORD TO NEAR RECORD
BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING (TEMPERATURES <32F
DEGREES) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZES (TEMPERATURES <28F FOR 2+ HOURS) ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS WELL. NBM HAS HIGH (70-100%)
CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 32F TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CAMERON
COUNTY AND POINTS NORTHWEST. NBM HAS A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-90%) CHANCE
FOR A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES <28F) FROM NORTH OF IH-2 TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOUTH OF THAT
CORRIDOR (I.E. CAMERON COUNTY AND FAR SOUTH HIDALGO COUNTY).
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED 1030-1040 MB SFC HIGH AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
CENTRAL/EAST U.S. TROUGH DEPARTS FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE MODERATION OR BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE RGV AND 50S
ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND ON THURSDAY WE'LL SEE HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE RGV AND 60S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 40S/50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG
COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES (POPS) ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE (MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS). SOME WEAK MOISTURE INFLUX
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ON EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COUPLED
WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARBY COULD DRIVE UP THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THINGS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE 20-30% POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT CONFINED EAST OF IH-69C.
AS TOUCHED ON EARLIER WITH THE DESCRIPTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN REGIME (I.E. -AO/+PNA) WE'RE IN, FORECAST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING YET ANOTHER (SECOND) COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON SOME
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS, THIS COLD FRONT COULD
YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST PARTS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (I.E. NORTHERN RANCHLANDS) AS ARCTIC AIR ENVELOPES
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST U.S. GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT
IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL PENETRATE AND THE EASTWARD
PLACEMENT OF THE FULL FETCH OF ARCTIC COLD AIR (I.E. OVER THE PLAINS
VS. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER). THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15
KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WINDS
WILL WANE WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MARINE CONDITIONS
COULD YET AGAIN BECOME ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE POTENTIALLY
IMPROVING LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
THE FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE 2025/2026 WINTER SEASON, AND THE
COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 21-22, 2025 HAS ARRIVED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING ON
CLEARER SKIES ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN FOR JANUARY
27.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27:
BROWNSVILLE: 32F DEGREES IN 1948
HARLINGEN: 30F DEGREES IN 1966
MCALLEN: 30F DEGREES IN 1966
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 33 62 49 66 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 28 62 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 31 63 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 24 60 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 44 61 55 63 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 34 62 49 65 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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