635
FXUS64 KBRO 271153 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION RESULTS IN SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT, POSSIBLY MEETING OR BREAKING RECORD
LOWS.
- A FREEZE WARNING AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, EXCEPT
FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
- PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD FOR RECOMMENDATIONS TO
KEEP YOURSELF AND OTHERS PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.
- GRADUAL WARMUP TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
- NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM CLEAR
SKIES WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BRING
ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO INLAND AND
COASTAL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A 1035-1040 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAINTAINS LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, NOT
INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS, BUT FEEL AS COLD AS 15-25
DEGREES F, WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S WITH "REAL FEEL"/APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW/MID 20S. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST REACH THE MID 40S WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING COULD MEET OR BREAK RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD FOR
RECOMMENDATIONS TO KEEP YOURSELF AND OTHERS PROTECTED FROM THE
COLD.
WEATHER PATTERN WISE, ZONAL OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
STARTS OFF WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS,
SHIFTING TO EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE, MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
TO THE GULF COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA, WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH REGAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WINDS VEER
BACK TO EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASES CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG/NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY EVENING TO AS MUCH AS A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH. RIDGING ALOFT RESUMES FRIDAY, DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHILE UPPER 30S/40S
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALONG WITH 50S AT THE
BEACHES. AS SUCH, NEITHER A FREEZE WARNING NOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ARE EXPECTED. THE LREF AND NBM SUGGEST, AT MOST, A 15%
AND 30% CHANCE, RESPECTIVELY, FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS FALLING BELOW 32 DEGREES. SO, A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY
FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING TO THE NORTH, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR LONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 50S/60S ON TUESDAY, 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY
70S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM AGAIN IN THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN.
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE GULF, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST, ALTHOUGH A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS
A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS IMPACTING THE LOCAL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SEAS RETURNING BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY EVENING.
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING MODERATE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS
ON WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHING TO GENTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, LIKELY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SEAS ELEVATE. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 50 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 44 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 62 47 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 60 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 56 64 58 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 49 66 52 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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