654
FXUS64 KBRO 281118 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
518 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
- CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING TO AS MUCH AS A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE, MAINLY EAST OF I-69 E AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LIKELY RESULT IN BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, FALLING TO THE 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS, WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY ALONG WITH A LOW
(15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS IN WAKE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL DEEP SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
DEVELOPING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT, EXTENDING
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS, BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
ASCENSION ALOFT, MOSTLY OVER THE GULF, INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MOISTURE POOLING
INCREASES CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-69 E,
TO AS MUCH AS A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NOW ON
TRACK TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CHANCES OF RAIN MAY DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
MAINTAINING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LOW (15-20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FROM POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGHING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TONIGHT TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS, UPPER 30S/40S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. AT MOST, THERE IS ONLY A 30%
CHANCE OF A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ZAPATA
COUNTY BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 32 DEGREES F, SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, MAXIMIZING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S DURING THE DAY AND
MINIMIZING IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND 40S
ELSEWHERE (50S ALONG THE COAST) WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S/50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
DROP TO THE 50S/60S DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. NBM CURRENTLY SUGGESTS AROUND A 10%
CHANCE AND A 30-50% CHANCE OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, RESPECTIVELY. A WARMING TREND
IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND AND START NEXT WEEK.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT
ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THEY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TURN NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS, BECOMING MODERATE (3-4
FEET) AS WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
A SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, TURNING WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SEAS. CHANCES OF RAIN
GRADUALLY BUILD THURSDAY EVENING TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-60%) CHANCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS INTO
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PERSISTING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN COULD RETURN NEXT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 51 72 52 / 0 0 0 20
HARLINGEN 67 45 72 46 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 70 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 57 69 54 / 0 0 0 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 51 72 49 / 0 0 0 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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