017
FXUS64 KBRO 281755
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND GULF WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVERSE
BEACH/MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (50-80%) OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND UPPER RGV. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOW/MID RGV.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
ANOTHER COOL AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
EXITS TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE GRADUAL RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND GULF
WATERS.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE (50-80%) FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESIDE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND UPPER RGV. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOW/MID RGV. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 10-11Z
ONCE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND SHIFTING SOUTHERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS NORTHERLY WINS INCREASE AND SEAS
BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 20-50%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 50 72 53 63 / 0 0 20 0
HARLINGEN 44 72 46 63 / 0 0 20 0
MCALLEN 47 75 50 66 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 42 75 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 70 55 63 / 0 0 40 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 72 50 63 / 0 0 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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