985
FXUS64 KBRO 291121 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
521 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (50-80%) OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
UPPER RGV. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOW/MID RGV.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADVERSE BEACH/MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
WHILE A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHIFTING BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING COOLER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. THE BEST CHANCE (50-80%) FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO THE UPPER VALLEY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10- 20%) OF A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOW/MID VALLEY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS
ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE,
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
WHILE A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHIFTING BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING COOLER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. THE BEST CHANCE (50-80%) FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO THE UPPER VALLEY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10- 20%) OF A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOW/MID VALLEY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS
ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE,
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
CYCLE AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THAT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT (20- 50%) AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 53 63 44 / 0 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 73 46 63 37 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 76 50 65 41 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 48 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 55 62 52 / 10 30 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 51 62 45 / 0 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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