407
FXUS64 KBRO 300443
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1043 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FREEZE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND GULF
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 5 AM FRIDAY.
- ADVERSE BEACH ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK TO
THE REGION. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE (10-30%) OVER LAND BEING ALONG THE
COAST.
WHILE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS WITH A (10-40%) CHANCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
(60-90%) FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INTO THE UPPER VALLEY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOW/MID VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR INLAND KENEDY, BROOKS, JIM HOGG, ZAPATA, STARR AND NORTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR IN CASE AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH IS NEEDED. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT HRL AND BRO, WITH VFR AT MFE
TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY
BRING WITH IT SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWERED CEILINGS WITH CALMER
WINDS SO TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR POTENTIAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST BEGINNING AT 5 AM FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT (30-50%) ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 52 64 44 / 0 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 74 46 63 39 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 76 50 66 42 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 47 66 37 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 55 63 52 / 0 30 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 51 63 46 / 0 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ248>252-353.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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