389
FXUS64 KBRO 311610 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1010 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS CHILLY AS LAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
- FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR A SHORT TIME IN WIND-PROTECTED
LOCATIONS.
- MARINE CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING SURF CONDITIONS BUT STILL DANGEROUS FOR
SWIMMERS UNAWARE OF HIDDEN HAZARDS FROM WAVES AND RIP AND
NORTH-SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENTS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
ELECTED TO CANCEL THE FREEZE WATCH FOR THE UPPER VALLEY/BRUSH
COUNTRY/COASTAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SEVERAL REASONS FOR THE CANCELLATION:
1) MODEL TRENDS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH, WHICH
ELONGATES FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS
SURFACE FLOW AND FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST RATHER THAN THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST, AS WAS THE CASE
TODAY.
2) POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING BROKEN (MOSTLY CLOUDY) SKIES
WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT 850 MB OVERRUNS THE STILL CHILLY AIR AT THE SURFACE AFTER
INITIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
THE LATEST BLENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 32
FROM NORTHWEST KENEDY THROUGH NORTHERN JIM HOGG, BUT HOURLIES ARE
GENERALLY 1 HOUR (NO MORE THAN 2). THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A 2+
HOUR FREEZE COULD AGAIN BE NORTHERN KENEDY, WHERE MOISTURE IS
LATER TO ARRIVE AND THEY TRADITIONALLY LEAN A LITTLE COLDER WITH
MORE WIND-PROTECTED LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING, SARITA STATION (TEXAS
WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD) DROPPED TO 27 AND ARMSTRONG/COOP DROPPED
TO 30, SO THE KEY WILL BE IF WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE REMAIN
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
MORE.
REGARDING OTHER ITEMS: AFTER REVIEWING WIND AND WAVE TRENDS, MAY
CONSIDER REMOVING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY NOON. KEY IS THE SLOW
DROP IN WAVES AT BUOY 42020 (35 NM EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD) BELOW 5
FEET. ALSO KEY IS THE MEAN WAVE DIRECTION FOR BUOY 42002 (~190 NM
EAST OF SOUTH PADRE) WHICH HAS BEEN DUE NORTH (DOWNSHORE), DESPITE
THE HIGH VALUES (9 FEET, IN GENERAL). WEB CAMERAS AT SPI STILL
SUGGEST FAIRLY DANGEROUS SURF EVEN IF HEIGHTS ARE A BIT BELOW THE
6 FOOT CRITERIA - SO IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO KEEP THE MESSAGE ON
POINT. HIGH INTENSITY AND SOMEWHAT RARE NORTH- TO- SOUTH
LONGSHORE CURRENTS ARE DOMINANT. SO, WHILE ANYONE WITHOUT A
WETSUIT IS NOT VENTURING INTO THE UPPER 50S DEGREE SURF, THOSE
WITH PROTECTION WILL FACE DIFFICULT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, A
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY, BROOKS, JIM HOGG,
ZAPATA, STARR, AND NORTHERN HIDALGO SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH
PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED FOR CHANCES OF A FREEZE IN THOSE
AREAS (30-50%).
ON SUNDAY, ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND
INTO NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY, WE WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK
COOLING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL COOL INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES, LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST, ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VEERING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
SIMILAR TO THE SURF WAVES AT THE BEACHES, WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF, AND WIND CONDITIONS IN
LAGUNA MADRE. BUOY 42002 (190 NM EAST OF SPI) IS STILL CRANKED UP
INTO ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT CLOSER TO SHORE, CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
MORE IN THE CAUTION RANGE AS THE GRADIENT AND THE DEGREE OF COLD
ADVECTION IS WANING RATHER QUICKLY. WILL MAKE A DECISION TO MOVE
FROM ADVISORY TO CAUTION BY NOON (18Z).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 46 67 56 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 40 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 42 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 37 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 52 64 59 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 46 66 54 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM AND MARINE UPDATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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