278
FXUS64 KBRO 312324 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
524 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, BUT JUST A GLANCING
FREEZE EXPECTED, MAINLY IN WIND-PROTECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. RESIDENTS THERE SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGILANCE
FOR ANY TENDER VEGETATION.
- STILL A BIT COOL SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE SUNNY AND
PLEASANT EARLY FEBRUARY WEATHER RETURNS TO CLOSE NEXT WEEK
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR MOST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, THEN A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT
- DANGEROUS SURF BECOMING MODERATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WORSENING A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY BUT
QUIETING DOWN TO CLOSE THE WEEK. SWIMMERS IN THE COOL SURF
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO SHIFTING RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES. THIS
TIME LAST WEEK (JANUARY 24),WE WERE READYING FOR THE SHARPEST
TEMPERATURE DROP OF THE SEASON, WHICH PRECEDED THE FIRST TRULY COLD
DAYS (40S FOR MOST) BRACKETED BY FREEZES AND HARD FREEZES ACROSS THE
VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY THE RANCHLANDS. THAT EVENT OCCURRED LARGELY AS
EXPECTED. THIS WEEK? ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT THE RESULT HAS BEEN WHAT WE TERM "SEASONABLY COOL"
CONDITIONS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW END-OF-
JANUARY LEVELS, AND MORNING LOWS TODAY (SATURDAY) ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS ARE PRISTINE WITH A CANADIAN BLUE SKY AND
NORTH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST - BUT TEMPERATURES HEADED TOWARD 60
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST (MID TO UPPER 50S THERE). AS MENTIONED IN THE
MORNING UPDATE, VEERING SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, A
RESPONSE TO THE UNDERSIDE OF THE EAST-WEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS-LOUISIANA, COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OF 850-700 MB WINDS, ARE ENOUGH TO HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR WIND-PROTECTED LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, MAINLY FAVORING KENEDY. DEPENDING ON LATE
EVENING TRENDS, MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR THERE
ONLY.
ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE AREAS ALONG/WEST OF IH-69C/US 281, 850 MB
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM, WHICH
WOULD KILL OFF EVEN THE OFT-CHANCE OF A LIGHT FREEZE.
OTHERWISE, WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR SURF CONDITIONS AT THE BEACH.
WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BE CLOSER TO 3-5 FEET RATHER THAN 6 (ADVISORY LEVEL
HEIGHTS), BUT THE STRONG NORTH-SOUTH LONGSHORE CURRENT COMBINED WITH
REMAINING ROUGHNESS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING TO BE ON
THE SAFE SIDE.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. WHETHER THE DAY BECOME FULLY OVERCAST OR PARTLY
CLOUDY IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING A
BIT - AND CURRENT FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FITS IN WELL AS
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EASE EASTWARD. SURF WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY,
THOUGH MODERATE RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A FEW-DAY WARMUP BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY
AS THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SHORT-WAVE 500 MB RIDGE ARRIVES, REPLACING
THE BACKSIDE OF THE IMPRESSIVE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TROUGH THAT IS
PRODUCING A BONA-FIDE SNOWSTORM IN PLACES LIKE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PICK UP A BIT, AND SKIES
SHOULD VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE
MORNING LOWS, RISING ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE 50S FOR THE VALLEY
AND MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE SCOOTS EAST BY TUESDAY, WITH ZONAL WESTERLIES AND A
CONTINUED WARMING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER EASTERN U.S. TROUGH -
ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAKER THAN RECENT EVENTS - DEVELOPS. LOOK FOR A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT IS LEANING TOWARD
EARLY TO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAN DRIER, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF - STILL MODEST AT BEST - OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. WITH THE DRIER AIR, INCLUDING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VS. FULL OVERCAST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S AFTER A MILD START TO THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WITH THIS FRONT OFFERING A
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR VS. A DIRECT HIT, EXPECTING JUST A MINOR
COOL-DOWN. EVEN THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE 10 AND 25% PROBABILITIES
ONLY DROP DAYTIME HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY, WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE 10% PROBABILITY ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. MODEL DATA HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY ON NOT
FLIPPING TOWARD ANY MUCH COLDER SOLUTIONS, SO A RETURN TO SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THOSE CANADIAN-BLUE
SKIES.
CROSSING FINGERS...BUT THE CLOSE TO NEXT WEEK COULD BRING "CHAMBER
OF COMMERCE" CONDITIONS AS HIGHS RETURN WELL INTO THE 70S AND
PERHAPS ABOVE 80 FOR SOME SATURDAY, WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY,
LIGHT WIND, AND FEW CLOUDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS LESSEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING EASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AT THE TAIL END OF THE CYCLE, CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BUILD FROM
MFE TOWARDS THE COAST AND MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WE'RE SITTING ON THE EDGE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY VS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. A SLIGHT SURGE OF
NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 23 KNOTS AT BUOY 42020 SUGGESTS ENOUGH OF
A BUFFER TO MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY UNTIL THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT
3 PM. LAGUNA MADRE WINDS HAVE BEEN SITTING MORE IN CAUTION, BUT
GUSTS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP TO 21 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE UP FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON LAGUNA MADRE SO ANY CAUTION
THROUGH SUNSET CAN BE REMOVED, AS NEEDED.
OVER THE GULF, THE QUESTION IS HOW HIGH WILL SEAS REMAIN AND FOR HOW
LONG? SEAS WERE STILL AT 9 FEET 180 NM EAST OF SPI WHERE STRONGER
FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUED - BUT BELOW 5 FEET AT BUOY 42020
(35 NM EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD). LOWERED VALUES BY A FOOT IN ALL
WATERS OUT TO 60NM, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KILL OFF CAUTION BY
SUNSET AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING. GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP A
BIT MONDAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT A NOW-STOUT MARINE LAYER WITHIN AT
LEAST 30-40 NM MAY CUT FORECAST DAYTIME VALUES BACK A BIT MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SPEEDS COULD SET IN THE 10-12 KNOT RANGE -
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE MARINE LAYER IS LESS EFFECTIVE - ESPECIALLY IN THE
OUTER LEGS. GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY, SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIP
A BIT ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESPOND, BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED
COLD ADVECTION, WE MAY SIT JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND, HOWEVER,
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WHERE 7 FEET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES THERE.
WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS STEADILY DROP BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION, EXPECT ONLY MODEST RAIN CHANCES (SHOWERS) ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
JANUARY IS ABOUT TO END, AND THE CHANGES FROM NEAR RECORD HEAT (TOP
FIVE FOR MOST) THROUGH THE 24TH TO THE 15-25 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
PERIOD THAT BEGAN LAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LAST
TUESDAY AS IMPACTED THE MONTHLY AVERAGES AND RANKINGS. THAT SAID,
WHILE THE COLD SNAP WAS ENOUGH TO PULL RANKINGS OUT OF THE TOP TEN,
AND TOP 20 IN A FEW CASES, THE MONTH IS SET TO END UP 1 TO 2 DEGREES
ABOVE THE 1991-2020 AVERAGE - AND GENERALLY AMONG THE TOP 25%
(QUARTILE) WARMEST DURING THE PERIODS OF RECORD, WHICH GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 60 TO MORE THAN 100 YEARS.
WE'LL HAVE A FEW DATA POINTS TO DISCUSS ON THIS COUNT TOMORROW (FEB.
1).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 46 67 56 73 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 39 67 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 43 69 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 38 67 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 52 64 59 69 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 47 66 55 72 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...69-HK
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