657
FXUS64 KBRO 010400
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1000 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- CHILLIEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST TODAY - SUNDAY MORNING - WITH
BRIEF FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS.
- A BIT COOL TODAY, BUT THERE IS WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. A
BRIEF COOLDOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. SUNNY
AND PLEASANT EARLY FEBRUARY WEATHER RETURNS TO CLOSE NEXT WEEK.
- FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, THEN A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT BEFORE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
- MODERATE SURF TODAY; WORSENS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
SWIMMERS IN THE COOL SURF SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO SHIFTING RIP
AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. BRIEF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE, VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE
SURFACE SUNDAY, BEGINNING A GRADUAL WARMING INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO 70 WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S LIKELY.
A SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT TOWARDS
SOUTH-CENTRAL US WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
MIDWEEK. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID
RGV. AT THIS TIME, A FRIGID COOLDOWN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
- HIGHS MIDWEEK DROP INTO THE LOW 70S (60S ALONG COAST). THE COOLEST
NIGHTS ARE FORECASTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE COOL AIR BEHIND THIS
MIDWEEK FRONT BEING USHERED OUT RATHER QUICKLY. AT PRESENT, THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE WARM AND DRY.
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS AND LESSEN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS - WHICH ARE LOW FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THANKS TO A LLJ AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS AT LOWER TX BEACHES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE INTO EARLY-
MIDWEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME EASTERLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THE TAIL END OF THE CYCLE, CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BUILD
FROM MFE TOWARDS THE COAST AND MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY, BECOMING GENTLE LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS DECREASE TO SLIGHT SUNDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE MODERATE SEAS RETURN TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 46 67 56 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 39 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 43 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 38 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 52 64 59 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 47 66 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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