672
FXUS64 KBRO 172321 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
521 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TOMORROW.
- MAY-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT HAZARDS
AFFECTING THE WATERS, COAST, AND INLAND. KEEPING A PARTICULAR
EYE OUT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE
AROUND MAY AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND,
AND WE COULD GET A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOMETIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS
FRONT IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SORT OF RAINFALL WITH IT,
IT SHOULD DELIVER A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE HEAT. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID
70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THIS
FORECAST SO THE SITUATION WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STARR, JIM HOGG, BROOKS,
AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE UPPER
TEENS AND GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FOR THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30 PERCENTILES. WITH THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN A
SIMILAR RANGE AND 20-FOOT WINDS CLOSE TO BEING IN THE UPPER TEENS
AGAIN TOMORROW, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
COULD BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW.
LASTLY, WHILE CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ARE GENERALLY PLEASANT
TODAY. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED
AS THE WAVES AND SWELLS INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WORK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASED MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS WILL FOSTER THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT COULD
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS EVENT IS MORE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE
AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
IT'S A REALLY TIGHT CALL AS TO WHETHER TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, STARR, AND JIM HOGG.
BLENDED FORECAST WINDS FALL JUST SHY OF THE 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY
REQUIREMENTS WITH HUMIDITY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, TRUSTED DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH
HEALTHY ~25 KNOT WINDS OFF THE DECK IN THE LOWER VALLEY WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST 20 KNOTS TO CONTINUE UP TO 850 MB
THROUGH 3 PM - AS WELL AS A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR "DRY" MIXING
OF SAID WINDS - MAKE THE CASE FOR A DECENT PERIOD OF 15-20+ MPH
WINDS IN THESE AREAS. ZAPATA TYPICALLY FALLS SHORT, AND WOULD
THEREFORE KEEP THEM OUT OF THE STATEMENT AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN THE STEADILY WORSENING DROUGHT - NOW AT EXTREME (LEVEL 3 OF
4) IN NEARLY ALL OF THESE AREAS - THE FAVORABLE HEAT (90+
DEGREES), AND SOME SMALL FIRE STARTS ON MONDAY IN SOUTHERN
HIDALGO, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR
THESE AREAS. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE 3-5 KNOTS HIGHER AS WELL. FUELS
ARE (STILL) PLENTY CURED IN ALL AREAS, SO THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 65 84 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 87 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 65 91 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 62 92 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 77 68 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 83 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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