430
FXUS64 KBRO 180338
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
938 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 936 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY.
- MAY-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT HAZARDS
AFFECTING THE WATERS, COAST, AND INLAND. KEEPING A PARTICULAR
EYE OUT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN FACT, THIS WEEK LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEK, AND UNFORTUNATELY, THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY LOOKS VERY DRY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. THE NBM STILL COOKS
THE MID TO UPPER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID 90S
AND BRINGS NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE COME IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL DROPPING HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
INTO THE MID 60S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH PROBABLY THE REST OF
FEBRUARY, INTO THE PEAK OF THE DORMANT FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
ABUNDANT CURED FUELS UNDER MODERATE TO PROBABLY SOON TO BE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ONLY WAITING FOR A SPARK AND
SOME WIND. EXPECT RH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 25-35 PERCENT ACROSS
ALL OR PORTIONS OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, STARR, AND HIDALGO
COUNTIES EVERY AFTERNOON, DROPPING ANOTHER 5-10 PERCENT FURTHER
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID VALLEY,
WHERE RH VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
URGED WHEN WORKING NEAR ANY OPEN FLAMES OR SPARKS INTO LATE
FEBRUARY. AN INVITING BEACH AND BEAUTIFUL BEACH WEATHER WILL ALSO
POSE AN INCREASED THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS MID TO
LATE WEEK, AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASED MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS DRIVING SCEC TO BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BAY AND OFFSHORE WATERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD. A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 84 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 62 87 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 66 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 62 90 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 76 69 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 83 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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