670
FXUS64 KBRO 181734
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- FIRE WEATHER STILL A CONCERN FOR THIS SUNDAY.
- MAY-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT HAZARDS
AFFECTING THE WATERS, COAST, AND INLAND. KEEPING A PARTICULAR
EYE OUT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT OVER THE NEXT COULD
OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW LIKE PATTERN TO SET UP AHEAD OF
THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR, DESPITE THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN
10%) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE MAY-LIKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S, WHICH WILL BRING A MINOR HEAT RISK TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST KEEPS RAIN CHANCES VERY
LOW (LESS THAN 10%) WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST. ONE OF THE
LARGER CONCERNS WITH THIS FRONT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER AS
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY HAS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE RANGE OF UPPER TEENS AND 20S IN THE UPPER
VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 40S FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY. WHILE THE 20-FOOT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT, EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH WORKING NEAR ANY OPEN
FLAMES OR SPARKS DUE THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LASTLY, ALONG THE COAST THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL SEE ELEVATED RIP
CURRENT RISKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS AS WELL, WHICH WILL BE
DETERMINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER, DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION THAT WILL REDUCE CEILINGS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS WELL
WITH SOME GUSTS GETTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TONIGHT AND STAY LIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS WILL FOSTER THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THIS EVENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 64 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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