285
FXUS64 KBRO 190427
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1027 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (OR WARMER) TOMORROW THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
TOMORROW.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
FREEZE-CURED FUELS AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EACH DAY, MOST ESPECIALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
- FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AND/OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AS STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRASHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
- IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND
BE VIGILANT OF FLAMES, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY INCLUDING: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF
ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND/OR POTENTIAL GALE WATCH AND
WARNING.
- TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE RISING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET, FEATURING A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES,
STRETCHES FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
SATURDAY, MAINTAINING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SEMI-ZONAL FLOW AND WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAIL AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF,
SOARING TEMPERATURES TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (OR WARMER).
EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE RETURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH RIDGING RESUMING
SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS (SSE WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 MPH,
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH) MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281/I-69 C TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MINIMIZE IN THE 60S.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE NBM AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PROG AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 90S, WHICH HAS A DECENT
POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING OR TYING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. YET,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT (REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR REGION) AS WELL AS THE RESULTING 925 MB WINDS AND
DEGREE OF AIR COMPRESSION, WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTING UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND MIDDLE/UPPER RGV WHILE
THE NAM AND HREF INDICATE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INLAND. A BRIEF
SURFACE WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-281/I-69 C TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW/MID 90S ARE ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUING GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND MIXING OF THE SOUTHERLY 925
MB WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH 20 FOOT
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO MEET FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY, IT IS STRONGLY
URGED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 20-45% ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (LOWER FURTHER WEST).
THE BIGGER FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF, BUT MOST ESPECIALLY BEHIND, THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON,
PASSING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER, THE NAM,
WHICH OFTEN HANDLES COLD FRONT TIMING WELL, SUGGESTS THE FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE ON
WHEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT CRASHING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY POSING THE GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER RISK AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO 20 FOOT WINDS OF UP TO POSSIBLY 15-20
MPH, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH ON SUNDAY, COINCIDING WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE TEENS FURTHER WEST TO AROUND 40%
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS (RFD) STATEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND LIKELY
ON SUNDAY, PERHAPS EVEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATER THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNING ON SUNDAY.
REFRAINING FROM OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED AS WELL AS
REMAINING EXTREMELY VIGILANT OF ANY OUTDOOR FLAMES AS FREEZE-
CURED FUELS BECOME VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ADDING TO THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK IS THE FACT THAT A D0-D3 (ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME),
SOON TO BE A D4 (EXCEPTIONAL), DROUGHT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND
40S/50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH IS NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
HIKING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBRO AND KHRL, WHILE
RANGING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AT KMFE, GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
ELEVATED HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT IS LIKELY TO KEEP HZ OR BR, RESULTING
IN 4-6 SM VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS,
LOWEST AT KHRL AND KBRO. IFR CEILINGS (900 FEET) HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT KBRO AND ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND TO KHRL AND KMFE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL, RANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR. VISIBILITY INCREASES
BACK TO P6SM AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS, HIGHEST AT KBRO, BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MUCH CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE (3-5 FEET SEAS), BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH
MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS, GALE
OR NEAR-GALE GUSTS, AND ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH/WARNING, IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH SCEC REMAINS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 64 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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