525
FXUS64 KBRO 192315 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND POOR AIR QUALITY ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED DUE TO AIR QUALITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WHICH WILL
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO AND JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR A FEW
DAYS AND IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.
- THERE IS INCREASED FIRE DANGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. FREEZE-CURED FUELS AND
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE DANGER. FIRE
DANGER PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
- BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH THE RISK
INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING DOMINANT OVER THE GULF. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS A SHARP TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE, WHICH IS TRAPPING BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING SMOKY AIR FROM MEXICO INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND THE STRONG INVERSION IS HELPING TRAP THAT AIR
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, POOR AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CREATING GUSTY
CONDITIONS. EVEN THROUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE AT CRITICAL
LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW AS IT WILL FURTHER DECREASE LOCAL AIR QUALITY
AND THE WINDS WILL ENCOURAGE SOME SPREAD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL PUSH THE INVERSION OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW THE AIR QUALITY TO
IMPROVE. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH BEHIND
THE FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION,
FUELS ARE FREEZE-CURED AND PORTIONS OF OUR CWA (PARTS OF BROOKS AND
JIM HOGG COUNTIES) HAVE JUST ENTERED D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT, WHICH
IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF DROUGHT POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, IT IS LIKELY
THAT FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND AND JUST BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS DROPPING
FROM PRE-FRONTAL UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TO THE LOW 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL FALL FROM THE MID-60S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
STARTING TUESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM
AND DRY FOR CHARRO DAYS FESTIVITIES STARTING LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEACH HAZARDS ARE ALSO ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGH AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS (SSE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS) CONTINUE AT KHRL AND
KBRO THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z (KHRL AND KBRO),
LOWERING TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT, WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
PROJECTED FOR KMFE BY 06Z, POSSIBLY STAYING MVFR WITH ROUNDS OF
IFR POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO REDUCE BETWEEN 3-5 SM AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM A
COMBINATION OF HAZE AND FOG, PERHAPS LOWER AT KBRO. SKIES
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR SKIES THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
HAZE CONTINUING TO REDUCE VIS. TO 4-6 SM INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY EVENING, A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WATERS, WHICH
WILL CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN BOTH THE
BAY AND OVER THE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ADVERSE
THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE TUESDAY, BUT A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND/OR SCEC CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 65 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 69 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 95 64 90 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 78 68 77 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 86 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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