469
FXUS64 KBRO 201144 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
544 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (OR WARMER)
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY, DROP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
WEEK, OR OVER THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL RED FLAG
WARNING ON SUNDAY AS POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASH.
- IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND
BE VIGILANT OF FLAMES, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOST
OF THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN A D0-D3 DROUGHT WITH CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM ABNORMALLY DRY (IN PARTS OF THE LOWER RGV) TO AN
EXTREME DROUGHT (ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND MIDDLE/UPPER RGV). A D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT
STRETCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES, WHICH
IS THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE LEVEL OF DROUGHT. AS THIS DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE, IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR
BURNING AND REMAIN VIGILANT OF ANY OUTDOOR FLAMES DUE TO THE
HEIGHTENED SUSCEPTIBILITY OF ANY WILDFIRE THAT STARTS TO SPREAD
DUE TO FREEZE-CURED FUELS/VEGETATION ACROSS THE REGION.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE A SHARP TEMPERATURE INVERSION
PERSISTS, TRAPPING ELEVATED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SMOKE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD HAZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE AIR AND HOW MUCH WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, VISIBILITY COULD REDUCE TO 2-3 MILES, OR LESS,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. YET,
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FURTHER INLAND, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT,
LEADING TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ARRIVING OVER THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E ACROSS THE LOWER RGV,
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH, OR HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, HAZE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME PATCHY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE INVERSION PREVAILS
BEFORE ERODING ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY EVENING, MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT PASSING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE NAM STILL HOLDS ONTO AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL, WITH THE FRONT SURGING THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AND
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
WEST WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS
20-35%; THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PLACED ALL OF
ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, NEARLY ALL OF STARR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BROOKS COUNTIES WITHIN A MEDIUM (40-69%) CHANCE OF
FIRE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LOW (15-20%) OF
A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER RGV
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
YET, THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS DURING THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY FROM A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM
A 1045-1050 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA,
INTERACTING WITH THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK OR WEEKEND AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNING ON SUNDAY AS BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
(HIGHEST ACROSS COASTAL AREAS) COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, POSSIBLY RANGING FROM 10-40% ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA, LOWEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOLLOWING, ODDS ARE INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL RFD STATEMENTS AND/OR RED FLAG
WARNINGS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS VERY LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES PERSISTENTLY COINCIDE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WINDIER
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE 10-15 DEGREES (OR WARMER) ABOVE
AVERAGE, MAXIMIZING IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON FRIDAY AND MID/UPPER
80S ON SATURDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE 60S TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50S/60S ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LIKELY TO ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY; MAXIMIZING IN
THE 70S AND MINIMIZING IN THE 40S/50S. A WARMING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY TUESDAY AND 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO ONGOING HAZE. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND NEARSHORE (0-20 NM) GULF WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD HAZE CONTINUES TO REDUCE
VISIBILITYTO 1-3 NM, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1 NM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH WITH PATCHY HAZE AND/OR FOG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF A SHOWER DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING, PASSING THROUGH ALL LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (4-5 SEAS) WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
A GALE WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A
POTENTIAL GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY, RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY
WINDS, GALE-FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER
SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCEC OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 67 86 60 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 91 63 85 52 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 95 68 88 55 / 0 0 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 64 88 53 / 0 0 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 68 75 60 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 64 81 56 / 0 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE
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