907
FXUS64 KBRO 202318
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
518 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- AIR QUALITY REMAINS MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY TODAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH HAZE AND FOG POTENTIALLY LIMITING VISIBILITY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
FEBRUARY, WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY AND ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
- DANGEROUS COASTAL AND MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO THE FRONT, DROPPING BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING, AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN OFF TO THE RACES THE REST OF THE WEEK ONCE
AGAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR WIND SHIFT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD THREAT
INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY AND PEAK OF THE DORMANT
FIRE WEATHER SEASON. ABUNDANT CURED FUELS UNDER MODERATE TO NOW
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ONLY WAITING FOR A SPARK AND
SOME WIND. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY
ACROSS ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, AND STARR COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY, AND MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AIR QUALITY HAS BEEN MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY ACROSS MOST OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THE LAST TWO DAYS, DUE TO LINGERING HAZE AND
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE OR SMOG, AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, EXPECT PERSISTENT
MARINE FOG INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO DETERIORATE INTO A HIGH RISK BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL RIP CURRENT STATEMENT ISSUANCE, ALONG WITH
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE COAST OR ISLAND PORTIONS OF KENEDY,
WILLACY, AND CAMERON COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT AROUND 07-08Z, LOW CLOUDS ARE
SUPPOSED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR AND LIFR BY 09-11Z. SOME AREAS OF FOG COULD BE
DENSE. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND MID-DAY WHICH WILL
PUSH FOGGY CONDITIONS/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA AND RETURN
CONDITIONS TO VFR. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MARINE FOG AND HAZE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY THE BAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DENSE
MARINE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
INTO MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY, BUT
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY,
THEN SCEC TO SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY
TURNING EASTERLY INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
WITH ABUNDANT CURED FUELS AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, NOW
INTO D4, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MOUNTING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY. SATURDAY RH VALUES DROP
LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY PUSHING A RARE EVENING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA.
RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST UPSTREAM OF THE RIO
GRANDE ACROSS EWX AND CRP CWAS.
FOR NOW, HAVE ISSUED A LAST MINUTE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO GIVE THE
EVENING SHIFT ANOTHER SET OF GUIDANCE BUT START THE MESSAGING. BY
SUNDAY, VERY DRY AIR HAS ARRIVED AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL DETERMINE IF RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE
ISSUED BY TOMORROW FOR SUNDAY. INCREASED WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY DRIVE
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE,
FIRE PREVENTION MESSAGING SHOULD BE A TOP FOCUS UNTIL DRENCHING
RAINFALL OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 86 57 68 / 0 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 63 84 50 69 / 0 10 10 0
MCALLEN 68 86 54 73 / 0 20 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 86 50 73 / 0 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 77 59 65 / 0 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 82 55 67 / 0 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ248>250-252.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...55-MM
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