106
FXUS64 KBRO 210400
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1000 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WILL CLEAR OUT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (15% OR LESS) OF A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM SATURDAY
FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND BROOKS COUNTIES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPTING
COASTAL AREAS.
- BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TOO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY,
WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MID-DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MID-DAY, WHICH WILL IMPROVE THE
AIR QUALITY BUT BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE FIRE
RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
CWA (LESS THEN 15% FOR ALL AREAS), BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
FIRE THREAT IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND
BROOKS COUNTIES SATURDAY, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (EXCEPTING COASTAL AREAS) SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH BEHIND THE FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION, FUELS ARE FREEZE-CURED AND
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA HAVE JUST ENTERED D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT,
WHICH IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF DROUGHT POSSIBLE. THESE DRY, CURED
FUELS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND THE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND AND JUST BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID-80S ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND FALL
INTO THE 70S BY THE EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL FALL FROM THE MID-60S TO THE LOWER 50S
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
STARTING TUESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LOWER HIGHS INTO THE MID-80S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
BEACH HAZARDS ARE ALSO ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING FOG, THERE IS CURRENTLY A
MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES,
WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH SURF AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT AROUND 07-08Z, LOW CLOUDS ARE
SUPPOSED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR AND LIFR BY 09-11Z. SOME AREAS OF FOG COULD BE
DENSE. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND MID-DAY WHICH WILL
PUSH FOGGY CONDITIONS/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA AND RETURN
CONDITIONS TO VFR. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE 0-20
NM GULF WATERS DUE TO AN OBSERVED LAYER OF MARINE FOG THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO SHORE AND LINGER OVERNIGHT. BY MID-DAY,
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL PUSH AWAY
THE FOG, BUT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN FOR THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS, AND
A GALE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ADVERSE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
AND MAY IMPROVE TUESDAY, BUT SCEC IS STILL POSSIBLE. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MID-WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER D3 DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH PORTIONS
OF BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES NOW FALLING UNDER D4 CONDITIONS,
WHICH IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF DROUGHT POSSIBLE ON THE DROUGHT
MONITOR. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE BEING THE FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
CREATES ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CORPUS CWA, IN EFFECT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND BROOKS COUNTIES FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD.
ON SUNDAY, VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS.
DEPENDING ON THE AREAS OF HIGHEST WIND, RED FLAG WARNINGS AND/OR
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TOO FOR SUNDAY. THEREFORE, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
(EXCEPTING COASTAL AREAS) FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE ALSO FIRE CONCERNS LATER THIS WEEK (WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY) AS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
WITH ELEVATED WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 68 85 58 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 92 64 86 50 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 96 68 88 54 / 0 0 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 66 86 50 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 68 77 60 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 65 81 55 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ248>255-353.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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