641
FXUS64 KBRO 211749
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1149 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TODAY AND ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY, INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH
SURF, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR RUNUP.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO MARCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT IS WORKING SLOWLY
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE BETTER PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE FALLING BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST MORNING, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE RGV. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STEAMROLL INTO MARCH AT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE REMAINS A VERY LOW (AROUND 15 PERCENT OR LESS) CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NEARLY ZERO CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY. UNFORTUNATELY, RH VALUES ALONG AND
WEST OF US281 GENERALLY SLIP BELOW 30 PERCENT EVERY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE NEXT DRYLINE OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD THREAT
INLAND. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE RANCHLANDS AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL OF INLAND PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS LIKELY ISSUED THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED MID TO
LATE WEEK.
ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING, BEHIND THE FRONT, AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, WITH A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH
SURF ADVISORY, AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL BEACH CONCERNS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ANY LINGERING HAZE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MARINE FOG AND HAZE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WILL LET THE DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE
COLD FRONT BRINGS A SOLID PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE BAY AND NEARSHORE
GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AND A GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT INCREASE
INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THEN SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A BRIEF
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WITH ABUNDANT CURED FUELS AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, NOW
INTO D4, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MOUNTING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY. THERE IS A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND BROOKS COUNTIES
UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, RH VALUES DROP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WITH POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY,
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW 40 PERCENT AND DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT BY NOON, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
US281 FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PORTIONS OF
ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES POTENTIALLY INTO SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITY VALUES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THESE LOW
RH VALUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY,
WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.
INCREASED WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY DRIVE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE AND GENERALLY WILL BE ALL WEEK, FIRE
PREVENTION MESSAGING SHOULD BE A TOP FOCUS UNTIL DRENCHING
RAINFALL OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 57 69 48 71 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 50 70 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 53 74 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 50 73 43 74 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 65 58 66 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 67 51 69 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ248>255-353.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ170-175.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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