230
FXUS64 KBRO 221131 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
531 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZAPATA AND COASTAL/ISLAND PORTIONS OF
CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TEXAS FROM 9 AM TO 6
PM SUNDAY AS GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COINCIDE
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY
FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AS BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- RFDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUE. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- REFRAINING FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND BEING EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS OF
FLAMES IS STRONGLY URGED AS ONGOING DROUGHT AND ABUNDANT
FREEZE-CURED FUELS CONTINUE TO MAKE OUR REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO
CATCHING AND RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BECOME ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO, TRANSITIONING ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO RIDGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK,
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A 1050-1060 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA SPILLS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS, RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15-20 MPH,
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO NEAR 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND A RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (EXCEPT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY) FROM 9 AM
TO 6 PM, ALSO NOT INCLUDING THE COASTAL AND ISLAND AREAS. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT GOES INTO EFFECT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY FROM 9 AM TO 6
PM SUNDAY. SEE THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. BREEZY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO MONDAY (WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH), BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
OUR CWA, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, YET THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT DROPS TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S/50S, WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, FALLING TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT, WHICH
IS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S, WARMING TO
POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD 90S ON THURSDAY, WHICH IS AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OR EVEN WARMER. TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE
INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.
AS NORTHERLY WINDS MAXIMIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 12 AM TO 6 PM SUNDAY (FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
OF 5 TO 8 FEET) WHILE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO NOT SWIM IN
THESE CONDITIONS DUE TO DANGEROUS SEAS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE (0- 20 NM) GULF
WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 12 PM SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS OF
15-25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS, LEAD TO 7-10 FEET SEAS AND ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. MEANWHILE, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE (20-60 NM) GULF WATERS UNTIL 12 PM SUNDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS, RESULT IN
SEAS OF 7-12 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA)
AND/OR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) HEADLINES REMAIN
POSSIBLE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (4-6
FEET) SEAS RETURN ON MONDAY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.
SCEC HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD BECOME SCA ON
WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TO STRONG WITH MODERATE SEAS, POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS COINCIDE WITH LOW DAYTIME AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. FURTHER ENHANCING THE RISK OF WILDFIRES CATCHING AND
SPREADING IS THE FACT THAT OUR REGION REMAINS WITHIN A D0-D4
DROUGHT, RANGING FROM ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT; A D4 (EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT) SPANS ACROSS PORTIONS OF JIM
HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES. IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING AND BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS OF FLAMES AS ANY SPARK
CAN LEAD TO RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH, ESPECIALLY AS FREEZE-CURED
FUELS REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRST OF TWO MAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION PERIODS IS ON
SUNDAY AS GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 20 FOOT, GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 25 MPH, CONTINUE TO USHER EVEN MORE DRY AIR, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DROPPING
FROM NEAR 35-55 PERCENT IN THE MORNING TO AS LOW AS AROUND 10-40
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON (LOWEST FURTHER WEST). WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ZAPATA AND COASTAL/ISLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND
KENEDY COUNTIES, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF INLAND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TEXAS FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY FROM 9
AM TO 6 PM AS BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING UP
TO 20 MPH, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (AROUND 10-15
PERCENT) RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
RFD ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS
20-40 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND 30-40 PERCENT ON TUESDAY, WHEN WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF
US-281. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED AHEAD
OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING AND/OR RFD ON WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25-35 MPH, HIGHEST FURTHER EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 48 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 43 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 58 66 59 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 50 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ249>255-353.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ170-175.
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