318
FXUS64 KBRO 221820
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
WITH LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES IN
THE SURF, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR RUNUP.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BECOME ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
GUSTY WINDS STICK AROUND TODAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE PASSED COLD FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN THE MAIN HAZARD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
OVERNIGHT, FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY, RETURNING A BIT OF MOISTURE
AND LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT LIMITING MOISTURE. THIS
PAIRED WITH A DRY BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION WILL RAISE CONCERNS
FOR FIRE WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW APPROACH NORMAL
TUESDAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND RGV (AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST).
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE
MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS. THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SEAS 4-7
FEET IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE WITH RUNUP ON NARROW
BEACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE 18Z CYCLE. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS (AROUND 30 KTS) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ROUGH SEAS AND
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING, AND ALL LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. TONIGHT, WINDS
DIMINISH, BECOMING MODERATE AND ONSHORE/SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY, AND
SEAS DECREASE TO MODERATE. HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS ARE BRIEF MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIDWEEK TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRINGS BACK FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTIONS LIKELY RETURN,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY FOR INLAND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, EXCLUDING ZAPATA COUNTY, WHICH IS UNDER A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT. IN ZAPATA COUNTY THIS MORNING, WINDS HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY
GUSTY AT THE SURFACE TO 20 MPH, WHICH IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY IN
CASE AN UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE,
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15- 20 MPH GUSTING AROUND 25-30 MPH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED
DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LOWER RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10% IN
ZAPATA COUNTY, THE TEENS IN NW RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
AND 20-30% ALONG THE US-77 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND FLAMES.
ONGOING DROUGHT AND ABUNDANT FREEZE-CURED FUELS CONTINUE TO MAKE
OUR REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO CATCHING AND RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES.
DIMINISHED WINDS SHIFTING EASTERLY BRIEFLY LOWERS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EARLY THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES STRUGGLE TO RECOVER,
RANGING BETWEEN 20-40%, GENERALLY LESS THAN 30% WEST OF US-281.
DESPITE DECREASED WINDS, THIS IS NOT IDEAL WITH THE CURRENT D2-D4
(SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS MAY WARRANT FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRY FRONT MID TO LATE
WEEK ELEVATING WINDS COULD BRING FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 48 70 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 44 72 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 48 75 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 43 74 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 66 59 72 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 69 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ249>255-353.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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