102
FXUS64 KBRO 231125 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
525 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT, WITH LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS
HIGH WAVES IN THE SURF.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES, VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF AREA,
EXCEPT FOR THE 50S AT THE BEACHES. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR THE 60S NEAR THE COAST, UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SLIDES
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND THE RETURN OF INCREASING MOISTURE. LOWS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS/RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND AROUND 60 AT
THE BEACHES.
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATES SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW RETURNS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, EXCEPT NEAR COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR BEACHES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A HEAT SPIKE, POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 90S, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE
UPPER 90S. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
LIGHT VEERING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT
AS MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS CONTINUE. THEREFORE, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS (0-60 NM)
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MID TO
LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE
SHOULD BRIEFLY LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY THIS WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 15 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
DRY FRONT.
REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND FLAMES.
ONGOING DROUGHT AND ABUNDANT FREEZE-CURED FUELS CONTINUE TO MAKE OUR
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO CATCHING AND RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 71 53 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 48 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 52 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 47 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 59 72 66 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
GM...NONE.
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