306
FXUS64 KBRO 241143 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
543 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
* A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZAPATA AND COASTAL/ISLAND COUNTIES, FROM
12 PM TO 6 PM TUESDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
* A HEAT SPIKE WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
* FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.
* ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IMPROVING LATE
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 585-590 DAM SONORAN HEAT DOME SITUATED OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL DRIVE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., INCLUDING US HERE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE TO THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND
SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT SPIKE, DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT RIDGE AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING (DOWNSLOPING) OFF THE SIERRA MADRE, WILL RESULT IN RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY (FEBRUARY 26) ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY SEASON WARMTH/HEAT SPIKE, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZAPATA AND COASTAL/ISLAND COUNTIES,
FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM TUESDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
DROP AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. DURING THURSDAY'S HEAT SPIKE, HIGH TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POCKETS
OF 100S, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF IH-69C. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF
TONIGHT (40S/50S).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS THE GULF AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS DUE TO
A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZAPATA AND COASTAL/ISLAND COUNTIES,
FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM TUESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH (OR GREATER), COMBINE WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 PERCENT TO 40
PERCENT (LOWER FURTHER WEST) TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 63 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 79 58 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 82 60 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 82 56 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 66 76 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
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