652
FXUS64 KBRO 100540 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP TUESDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
- THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- A STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND,
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY FRONT ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LINE MAY EXTEND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS RAIN CHANCES AROUND
20-30% FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THOUGH THE 0Z RUN OF THE HRRR
DOES HAVE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LIKELY OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE DECREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OR BE SUSTAINED
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AMPLE WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD SUPPORT STRONG, BUT LIKELY SUB-SEVERE, THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL REMAIN HOT WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER, THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONGER WINDS
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30% COULD POSE A RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION THAT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. AS
THESE GUSTY WINDS PICK UP THE CEILINGS SHOULD GO TO VFR FOR THE
DAY TIME HOURS. WHILE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEY SHOULD STILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY
REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST OF TOW COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER, STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 72 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 90 70 94 57 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 93 73 97 62 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 69 94 61 / 0 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 72 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 70 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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