394
FXUS64 KBRO 102344 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS, JIM
HOGG, STARR, AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES TILL 7 PM CDT (SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
* A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM
CDT (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
* FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES INCLUDING TWO HEAT SPIKES, ONE
ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY, IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS).
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE
GULF WATERS TILL TONIGHT; MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ADVERSE TO
HAZARDOUS AT TIMES; ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE 1) THE
WINDY CONDITIONS AND BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY,
2) THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY,
3) THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY, AND 4) ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTED A FEW-SCT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERLAID ON TOP OF THE LOWER STRATO-CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR THESE CLOUD TRENDS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT, COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND A 1021 MB SFC
HIGH PRESSSURE SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS, COUPLED WITH
A STRONG H850 LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) WITH WINDS BETWEEN 25-40 KTS, AND
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS HAVE EFFECTIVELY ACTIVATED THE "VALLEY WIND MACHINE" TODAY.
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 20-35 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS RANGING
BETWEEN 40-45 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY, SPECIFICALLY OVER
CAMERON, HIDALGO, AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TILL 7PM CDT THIS EVENING. LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE SOME, BUT STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE LLJ WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND MIXING HEIGHTS
DECEASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, THERE IS A BORDERLINE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AS WELL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FROM 2-7 PM CDT FOR BROOKS, JIM HOGG, STARR,
AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO CRITERIA (I.E. BETWEEN 35-
40%), THE BREEZY WINDS, THE FACT THAT THOSE AREAS ARE EITHER UNDER
EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND THE TEXAS
A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS OUR CWA UNDER A HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK FOR
TODAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGIES/SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
PARENT TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS WILL
YIELD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO (20-30% POPS) ACROSS
OUR WESTERN SECTORS (I.E. AREAS WEST OF IH-69C) LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE THE STRONGER FORCINGS, JET
DYNAMICS, AND INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR
THAT MATTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, A COOL FRONT AND DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO
EAST. A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO UNFOLD FOLLOWING THE DRYLINE PASSAGE. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-
30% ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH D2
(SEVERE DROUGHT) TO D4 (EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT), INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS LIKELY TAPPING INTO EVEN DRIER AIR, AND AT TIMES BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK
FOR FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ISLAND FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS PLACED
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MODERATE FIRE DANGER RISK WITH A
POCKET OF HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK OVER NORTHERN ZAPATA AND JIM
HOGG, AND ANOTHER POCKET OF HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY (I.E.
CAMERON, WILLACY COUNTIES INTO THE BARRIER ISLAND) FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE RISK FOR WEDNESDAY,
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, COURTESY OF SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SIERRA MADRE FROM WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A HEAT SPIKE TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS).
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY AS THERE WILL BE YET ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY STRONG
COOL FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION).
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT INCLUDES TWO HEAT SPIKES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST HEAT SPIKE WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
THE SECOND HEAT SPIKE IS PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COOL FRONT. ON SUNDAY, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER 100S MOST PLACES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SKIES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR BY MID-MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
COURTESY OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO
30 KNOTS, WE'VE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TILL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AND TILL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ON WEDNESDAY, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS. FOLLOWING THE COOL FROPA AND DRYLINE, HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. ADVERSE TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITONS RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND COOL FROPA. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TODAY, THERE IS A BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AS WELL AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FROM 2-7 PM CDT
FOR BROOKS, JIM HOGG, STARR, AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CRITERIA (I.E. BETWEEN 35-40%), THE BREEZY WINDS, THE FACT THAT
THOSE AREAS ARE EITHER UNDER EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4)
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS OUR CWA
UNDER A HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK FOR TODAY.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, A COOL FRONT AND DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO
EAST. A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO UNFOLD FOLLOWING THE DRYLINE PASSAGE. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-
30% ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH
D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) TO D4 (EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT), INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS LIKELY TAPPING INTO EVEN DRIER AIR AND AT TIMES BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK
FOR FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ISLAND FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS PLACED
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MODERATE FIRE DANGER RISK WITH A
POCKET OF HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK OVER NORTHERN ZAPATA AND JIM
HOGG, AND ANOTHER POCKET OF HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY (I.E.
CAMERON, WILLACY COUNTIES INTO THE BARRIER ISLAND) FOR WEDNESDAY.
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY DUE TO CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND YET ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY STRONG
COOL FROPA THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO A DRYLINE PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A SURGE IN TEMPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-
BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S MOST PLACES (MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY).
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 11:
* BROWNSVILLE: 95F DEGREES (2018)
* HARLINGEN: 97F DEGREES (2018)
* MCALLEN: 101F DEGREES (2018)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 94 64 76 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 95 57 77 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 96 61 81 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 61 79 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 84 64 71 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 92 61 74 / 10 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253>255-353>355.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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