496
FXUS64 KBRO 110413
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1113 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT.
* FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, THE COMBINATION OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM AIR
DESCENDING OFF THE SIERRA MADRE, INCREASED SUNSHINE, AND THE LOWER
SPECIFIC HEAT OF THE DRY AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SKIES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR BY MID-MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF ADVERSE
TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 12-20% ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS THIS
WILL LIKELY POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30% ALONG AND WEST OF I-69C THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 95 63 75 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 95 57 77 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 73 96 60 80 / 20 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 59 78 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 85 63 70 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 93 60 73 / 10 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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