719
FXUS64 KBRO 112122
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER/MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA, EXCEPTING THE ISLANDS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS.
- BEACH HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TODAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW AND WILL WARM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY, WHICH WILL CREATE SIMILAR HAZARDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.FIRE WEATHER/MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WE'VE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ISLAND TILL 8 PM CDT DUE TO THE
CRITICAL RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRYLINE,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN PRECIPITOUSLY ACROSS THE
REGION. IN IT'S WAKE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
10-20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH IN SPOTS.
GIVEN THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MARRIED WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT FROM STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, AND AN ONGOING DROUGHT (I.E. D2 SEVERE
DROUGHT TO D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT), A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
AREA UNDER A HIGH FIRE DANGER THREAT WITH POCKETS OF VERY HIGH
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY (I.E. CAMERON/WILLACY COUNTIES) AND THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF BROOKS INTO KENEDY COUNTIES. MAKE SURE TO
EXERCISE FIRE WEATHER SAFETY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR, COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING D2 TO D4
DROUGHT, WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA FOR TOMORROW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS AND HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY GETS BEHIND THE FRONT, A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY DROUGHT RELIEF NEXT
WEEK, AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S. A WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S FOR A FEW DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
AND POSSIBLY CREATE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THERE IS ALSO HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, STARTING THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z
IS EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BAY AND ON
THE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 74 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 56 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 59 79 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 77 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 69 61 73 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 71 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
FIRE WEATHER/MESOSCALE UPDATE: 23-EVBUOMA
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page