492
FXUS64 KBRO 120335
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1035 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN-FREE WEATHER WITH A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND, AND AT
TIMES BREEZY CONDITONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
* ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY; A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, KENEDY,
WILLACY, AND CAMERON COUNTIES, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND FROM 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS).
* A HEAT SPIKE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT; A
RECORD OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A BENIGN, RAIN-FREE WEATHER PATTERN PUNCTUATED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
DRIVEN BY A SECOND COOL FROPA LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY SOILS,
AND BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS). A LOT, HOWEVER, WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN LOW (BETWEEN 15-40%).
OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON
THURSDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND) BEHIND THE COOL TONIGHT'S COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND CULMINATING TO ANOTHER
HEAT SPIKE ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD 90S WITH MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF
100S ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND
WEST OF IH-69E. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MCALLEN. THE RECORD HIGH FOR MCALLEN FOR MARCH 15TH IS
103F DEGREES SET BACK IN 2008. AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPG AND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) FROM THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP IN THE SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG COOL FRONT (THE SECOND IN A WEEK) WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DROP
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
AND 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (NEAR NORMAL LEVELS). FULL COOL
AIR ADVECTION (CAA) REGIME WITH BLUSTERY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH 20-
30 MPH AND A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT, NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS OR SO THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS
MORE OUT OF THE NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EITHER
FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR SEAS IS IN EFFECT TILL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS AND WINDS. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY,
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN RESPONSE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN ADVERSE (I.E.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT, HAZARDOUS (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY)
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ADVERSE TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SHOW GRADUAL SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A CONTINUATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES, ONGOING DRYNESS/DROUGHT CONDITIONS (I.E. D2 SEVERE
DROUGHT TO D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER THE REGION), AND AT TIMES
BREEZY NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS.
TIMING WILL BE KEY AS THE STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY AT THE TIME WHERE RH VALUES ARE
ELEVATED. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, RH VALUES WILL DROP.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS DIE DOWN WILL DICTATE WHETHER
OR NOT WE REACH CRITERIA FOR EITHER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD)
OR A RED FLAG WARNING. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, KENEDY, WILLACY, AND
CAMERON COUNTIES, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
TILL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE, HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A POCKET OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED WITH VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 75-96%, AND FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY TO
CRITICALLY DRY.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED
ANTECEDENT DRYNESS/ONGOING DROUGHT AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 74 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 56 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 59 79 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 77 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 69 61 73 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 71 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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