458
FXUS64 KBRO 121716
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWING
A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AT AREA BEACHES.
- A WARMING TREND STARTS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FIRE, MARINE,
AND BEACH HAZARDS TO THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR FIRES TO CATCH AND
SPREAD. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED TODAY. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME CALMER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING WIND.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S TONIGHT, AND THEN
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY, SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 100 DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH COMING OFF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL LOWER
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-
40S. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER, AND THEN HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID-80S AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT, BUT FIRE WEATHER ALONG
WITH MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS WILL BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THE EVENING AND BEGIN
VEERING MORE EAST BY 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. FROM
THERE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO FAVORABLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM, WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND MAKE SCEC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN. ON MONDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND/OR
POSSIBLY EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 51 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 75 48 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 78 52 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 47 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 61 73 67 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 53 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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