676
FXUS64 KBRO 122332 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWING
A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AT AREA BEACHES.
- A WARMING TREND STARTS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FIRE, MARINE,
AND BEACH HAZARDS TO THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR FIRES TO CATCH AND
SPREAD. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED TODAY. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME CALMER TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING WIND.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S TONIGHT, AND THEN
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY, SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 100 DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH COMING OFF THE ROCKIES, WHICH WILL LOWER
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-
40S. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER, AND THEN HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID-80S AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT, BUT FIRE WEATHER ALONG
WITH MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS WILL BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. FROM
THERE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO FAVORABLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM, WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND MAKE SCEC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN. ON MONDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND/OR
POSSIBLY EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 51 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 48 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 51 87 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 47 86 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 73 66 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...60-BE
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