925
FXUS64 KBRO 130405
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AT AREA BEACHES.
- A WARMING TREND STARTS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FIRE, MARINE, AND
BEACH HAZARDS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SATURDAY AND THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100 ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY SUPPORT INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, LIKELY BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, DRIER AIR,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS. FIRE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE A CONCERN MONDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20% AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S, GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK TO THE 80S BY MID
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IMPROVING TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE ARE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ALONG THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES OR GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 51 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 48 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 51 87 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 47 86 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 73 66 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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