674
FXUS64 KBRO 141110 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
610 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 100 POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY BUT WARM BACK TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OR LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
THE LOW TO MID 90S SATURDAY AND THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ON
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20% ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY FURTHER INLAND. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
20% ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, AND MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS, THIS WILL PRESENT AN INCREASED RISK FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND RETURNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW
90S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START THE MORNING LIGHT, BUT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING, BUT THEN INCREASE FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD
HIGHER SEAS AND LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE GULF
WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A GALE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
LOOK TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY
EVENING. 20 FOOT WINDS MAY EXCEED 20 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH
FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY. MEANWHILE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH OF
THE CWA FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 30% BY SUNRISE AND REACH THE TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30%
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST,
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH,
LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 69 89 58 / 0 0 0 30
HARLINGEN 90 66 96 51 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 93 69 100 54 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 66 101 53 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 81 58 / 0 0 0 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 67 90 55 / 0 0 0 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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