070
FXUS64 KBRO 141928
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
228 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 30-35 MPH, OR HIGHER, BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
- TEMPERATURES SOAR TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH RECORD BREAKING TO NEAR-RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 100S.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRASHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
RESULTING IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS GALE FORE GUSTS RESULT IN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO TONIGHT, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E, WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY GUSTS INCREASE FROM 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON TO 30-35
MPH, OR HIGHER, BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DRY LINE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE COLD
FRONT, IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW, POSSIBLY PROGRESSING AS FAR EAST AS THE MIDDLE RGV
AND MOST OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO MOST OF THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, MINIMIZING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COINCIDING WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES, WHERE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
(RFD) IS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW/MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, TO 90S TO LOWER 100S TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH IS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AS LOWER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS BEHIND THE DRY LINE RESULT IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE MET OR BROKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IN MCALLEN, WHERE THE RECORD HIGH IS 103 F AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGH IS 102 F. THE RECORD HIGH/FORECAST HIGH FOR TOMORROW IN
HARLINGEN ARE 100/96 F.HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S ALONG/NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MINIMIZE
IN THE 50S BY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, DISCUSSED BELOW.
LATE TOMORROW EVENING, THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
FLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE LATE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, BRINGING A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A LOW (15- 30%) CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER RGV TO THE COAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
BRIEF SHOWERS, AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT. YET, THE BIGGEST FOCUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FRONT IS THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WHICH HAS TO LED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH,
EFFECTIVE ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
BARRIER ISLANDS, FROM 10 PM SUNDAY NIGHT TO 7 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMIZE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH, OR HIGHER, AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES
FROM 10 PM SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN GUST UP TO 50 MPH, OR HIGHER, FOR
SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE COUNTIES FURTHER WEST. THIS
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT LATER SHIFTS, BUT A
SHORTER- FUSED WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, THE UPPER RGV AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING TO MAINLY THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE OR COOLER. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS MAY MINIMIZE IN THE LOWER 40S.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SKIES CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SKIES CONTINUING
INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS
CONTROL OVER THE GULF AND EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OR LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE SLIGHT RECOVERY IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY AND ONWARD,
THE COMBINATION OF LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD A DAILY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT, AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATNING RIP CURRENTS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MEDIUM TO HIGH RISKS
OF RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BREEZY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING BEYOND SUNSET TONIGHT, THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TO
15-20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS, BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5
FEET) SEAS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW, LIKELY
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20
NM), WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON HOW
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ADDED FOR TOMORROW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THERE IS A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEAR GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH, A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS FROM 10 PM SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS RESUMING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS, FROM 10 PM SUNDAY EVENING
UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAPIDLY
CRASHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY EVENING WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH,
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 10-40 PERCENT ARE
LIKELY, WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG/WEST OF US-281.
ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT CURED FUELS REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN THE
D2 TO D4 (SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION, IT IS
STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 90 59 67 / 0 0 20 10
HARLINGEN 65 96 52 67 / 0 0 20 10
MCALLEN 69 102 56 71 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 101 54 70 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 81 59 65 / 0 0 30 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 90 57 67 / 0 0 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ250-
251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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