773
FXUS64 KBRO 161759
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
* HAZARDOUS MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS TODAY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
* UNDER MOSTLY RAIN-FREE SKIES, TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE
WEEK, RETURNING TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE FUNNELING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT AS IT EJECTS OVER EAST CONUS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING AROUND 5-10
MPH OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING
IN PLACE UNTIL 7 PM. TOMORROW, GENTLER WINDS PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF
A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20% IN JIM HOGG AND
ZAPATA COUNTY (LESS THAN 30% INLAND).
AT LOCAL SOUTH TEXAS BEACHES, YOU WILL FIND HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND AROUND 50 IN THE LOW-MID RGV AND
ALONG THE COAST. TUESDAY HIGHS FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
MONDAY'S IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTERLY, RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK, BREEZY
EACH AFTERNOON. RIDGING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEK, RETURNING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT, ADVERSE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING. WINDS 20-25 KTS AND ROUGH SEAS
DECREASE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SLIGHT SEAS AND SOUTHERLY TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 53 71 56 / 10 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 68 48 73 51 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 71 50 76 55 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 58 66 61 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 53 70 56 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ250-251-
253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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