086
FXUS64 KBRO 291127 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
-THERE IS A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.
-MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, THOUGH WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN POPS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
-FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS (RFDS)
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND.
-TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LIGHT TO VARIABLE EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER MEXICO MAY RESULT IN A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE
RGV SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS (LESS THAN 10% POPS) BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LEADING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
EXCEPT FOR A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING FROM ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS; RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS
MODEL RUNS REVEAL A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE UPPER RGV WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL INTO FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
(RFD) CRITERIA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL COLD FRONT.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS INCREASING FROM AROUND 85-90 F ON SUNDAY TO MAINLY 90S
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 90S FURTHER WEST BY WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASE FROM THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S, POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
A MEDIUM RISK RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT DECREASES TO A LOW RISK BY SUNDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WHILE SOME LOW-LEVEL TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
WHILE THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL SEE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS, THEY
SHOULD BECOME MORE GUSTIER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN BY
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MAINLY
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MODERATE
(3-4 FT) SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS RESUME ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CONDITIONS (SCEC) HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, LEADING TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW (15-20%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO POPS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 84 67 85 69 / 30 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 86 64 89 66 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 90 68 92 70 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 65 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 71 78 72 / 20 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 66 84 68 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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