879
FXUS64 KBRO 300340
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1040 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY.
- LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-50%) CHANCE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MOST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS UNCHANGED. A
SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE PLAINS MAINTAIN A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG/EAST OF
US-281, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH, OR HIGHER, ARE LIKELY. ASIDE
FROM A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN FROM BRIEF AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV, HIGHEST NEAR/ALONG THE COAST,
ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS COINCIDING
WITH AFTERNOON MINIMIZING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MOST AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST
OF US-281. AS CURED FUELS REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN THE ONGOING
MODERATE, SEVERE AND EXCEPTIONAL (D2, D3 AND D4) DROUGHT ACROSS
OUR REGION, OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED AND BURNING BANS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR CAMERON, WILLACY, HIDALGO, STARR, BROOKS, JIM HOGG
AND ZAPATA COUNTIES. FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PRESSURE HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL AS A TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD
GUST UP TO 35 MPH. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WARMING TREND RESULTS IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD
90S INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND UPPER 90S LIKELY
ALONG/WEST OF US-281 INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WARM TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE, INTO THE 80S, ON SUNDAY.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT, BECOMING A MEDIUM RISK
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
20-25 KNOTS, EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW AND MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT KHRL AND KMFE, RESPECTIVELY, DURING THE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE; AMENDMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS RESUME THROUGHOUT THE LATER MORNING HOURS
AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS, OR HIGHER, POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-4
FT) SEAS CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CONDITIONS (SCEC) HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, LEADING TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
(4-5 FT) SEAS. THERE IS A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN FROM PASSING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%)
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, REMAINING MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 67 85 69 86 / 0 0 10 20
HARLINGEN 63 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 68 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 78 72 78 / 0 0 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 84 68 85 / 0 0 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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