377
FXUS64 KBRO 311053 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK
IMPROVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH DEEP MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH EARLY TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1-2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING.
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND WILL CREATE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY ARRIVING WITH THE START
OF APRIL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY BREEZY AFTERNOONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, OFFERING UP A 10-15 DEGREE
COOLER SWING FROM LATE EASTER WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, ASIDE FROM THE BREAK IN THE HEAT, RAINFALL IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE CHANCE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LOW POPS
(10-20 PERCENT), BUT AT LEAST SOME SIGN OF LIFE ON RADAR AND
HOPEFULLY IN SOME RAIN GAUGES. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF, WITH, AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
HANGING AROUND, EXTENDING BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL. IN FACT,
EXTREME FORECAST INDICES HIGHLIGHT THE CWA FOR POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ABOVE 1 INCH
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION, WITH CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FROM SOUTHERN
ZAPATA TO SOUTHERN STARR COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORM IN THIS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAINMAKER AND GIVEN THE LACK OF
RAINFALL FOR WELL OVER A MONTH TO MONTH AND A HALF FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS MAY BE WARRANTED.
LONG DROUGHTS IN TEXAS UPENDED BY FLOODING RAIN IS VERY WELL
DOCUMENTED, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO CLEAN AND PREPARE DRAINAGE
DITCHES OR CANALS AND GET ANY RAIN CATCHING BUCKETS OR BARRELS
INTO PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY BY MID-MORNING. SOME
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT BRO/HRL.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASING WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON TO SCEC AND BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGS NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIAL
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF, AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 71 87 72 / 30 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 89 68 92 70 / 20 0 10 0
MCALLEN 93 72 95 74 / 20 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 97 71 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 73 79 73 / 30 10 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 69 86 70 / 30 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...63-KC
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