014
FXUS64 KBRO 012325 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK
IMPROVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH DEEP MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EASTER WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH EARLY TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND WILL CREATE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND
GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES TO
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IN COMBINATION WITH
THE HUMIDITY, THIS WILL RESULT IN A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
SHADE IF SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OUTDOORS.
AS MOISTURE CONTENT STEADILY RISES THROUGH THE WEEK VIA LOW LEVEL
FLOW, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE PRIMED WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT (~90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL ACCORDING TO SPC’S
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM
1.8 TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO.
MOST OF SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND GULF WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND UPPER RGV AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 90S, AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
THE LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE WINDOW OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES BEING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IF ANY SLOW-MOVING, EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING, OR TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-50%) OF
RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT STAYS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION OR IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ANY RAINFALL IS BENEFICIAL ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES GIVEN THE DRY SOILS OR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ON EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL, MOSTLY IN THE
70S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS
BEGIN TO LIFT AND THIN OUT THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, LESSENING OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS, PICKING UP AGAIN MID-MORNING UP TO 30
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
GULF WATERS. A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 88 73 88 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 70 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 94 75 94 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 98 73 96 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 73 80 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 70 86 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...69-HK
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