678
FXUS64 KBRO 020538 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK
IMPROVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH DEEP MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EASTER WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH EARLY TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF
WATERS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND THIS WEEKEND'S COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY...WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGF ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH 80S ALONG THE COAST AND 90S INLAND. THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A LLJ EXTENDING FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EACH DAY.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE GULF. WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%),
THIS WILL STEADILY MOISTEN THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY (~1.5")
AND APPROACHING DAILY MAXIMUM VALUES (~2").
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
PNW WILL DIG INTO CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEK, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY ONWARDS WILL HANG IN THE 70S.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING (30-50%) ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND UPPER RGV AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, EXPANDING ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT (70-90%). THE FRONT, MOVING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, SHOULD REACH THE RANCHLANDS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO EVENING AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE RGV OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY (80-90%
AREA WIDE), WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING MONDAY ONWARDS.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH MOST RAIN
FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN RESULT IN ISOLATED TOTALS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES,
LEADING TO FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE REGION HAS BEEN PLAGUED BY PERSISTENT DROUGHT; DRY
SOILS STRUGGLE TO ABSORB LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN SHORT
AMOUNTS OF TIME. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
STRONG, MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE. A SLOW OR STALLING BOUNDARY COULD PROLONG STRATIFORM
PRECIP INTO MONDAY. IN CONTRAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL
TX WOULD PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE QUICKER, ENDING RAIN CHANCES
SOONER.
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED, ESPECIALLY AS FUTURE
HI-RES GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES. BE SURE YOU HAVE A RELIABLE
WAY TO MONITOR WEATHER AND RECEIVE WEATHER ALERTS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
A MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY RAIN-
FREE SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE
GULF WATERS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THIS WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH ROUGH SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 10 0 20 10
HARLINGEN 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 10 20
MCALLEN 74 94 75 94 / 10 0 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 96 73 94 / 10 10 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 74 80 / 10 0 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 71 87 / 0 0 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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