337
FXUS64 KBRO 161125 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
* A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY AT LEAST 0.75-1.00
INCH OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP 10-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT,
BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SEMI-ZONAL AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING AND
SHORTWAVES TO THE WEST AND AND INFLUENCE FROM AN EXPANDING MID/UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO MAINTAIN DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AND
STRENGTHENS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS WILL TIGHTEN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
ENHANCING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS FROM
20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY TO 25-35 MPH ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME,
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV ON ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER A WIND
ADVISORY, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
INTO TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE POOLING AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY
COASTAL TROUGHING AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE(S) BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
LIKELY TO BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH A
GROWING POTENTIAL FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN, THOUGH WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAZARDS AND IMPACTS.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN LATE
SATURDAY EVENING TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (60-80%) CHANCE BY
SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES OF
RAIN SLOW DROP SUNDAY NIGHT TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE NEXT
MONDAY AND A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE REMAINS
TIME FOR THE SPECIFIC DETAILS TO BE MORE CONFIDENTLY ESTABLISHED,
OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE MOST OF THE CWA
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.75-1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING UP TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF US-281, WHERE THE NBM
ADVERTISES A 30-60% CHANCE OF RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 2.00 INCHES.
FOLLOWING, DRIER CONDITIONS RESUME, POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, INCREASING A FEW
DEGREES INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING MAXIMIZING INTO THE
LOW/MID 90S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND UPPER RGV, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE LOW/MID 70S.
HIGHS COULD DROP BY 10-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, OR COOLER. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) HEADLINES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA)
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS FURTHER ENHANCE TO FRESH TO STRONG.
WINDS EASE AND BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, ROUGH SEAS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCAS ARE LIKELY. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH SCEC AND LINGERING CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESUMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 90 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 80 74 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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