705
FXUS64 KBRO 161937
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
* COLD FRONT AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS: A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND AND WATER, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS.
* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60-80
PERCENT) FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (1-2", LOCALLY
3-4") OVER 48 HOURS, THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
POTENTIAL URBAN FLOODING AND RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
* SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15-20 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH PRE-DAWN 70S FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID-60S BY MID-DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SWELL AND STRONG FRONTAL
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, MAINTAINING BREEZY TO AT TIMES BLUSTERY SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60 TO 80 PERCENT) THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A BUILDING 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.8 TO 2
INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR MAXIMUM OF SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
BROWNSVILLE, TX. WHILE THE PROJECTED 1-2 INCHES, LOCALLY 3-4
INCHES RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL DUE TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN
FLOODING HAS PROMPTED WPC TO ISSUE A DAY 4 (SUNDAY 7 AM TO MONDAY
7 AM) MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
BESIDES THE RAIN, PERHAPS THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
SHARP, NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN A SETUP
REMINISCENT OF THIS PAST EASTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15-20
DEGREES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY GUSTING 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT
AND PRE- DAWN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CRASH INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S BY NOON. FOR MID- APRIL, WHERE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
IN THE MID-80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, SUNDAY WILL BE A RAW
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY.
AS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CURRENT MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
HIGH RISK BY SATURDAY EVENING, PERSISTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN BUT RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTING 25-30 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW (10-20
PERCENT) CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BORDERLINE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS (40 MPH FREQUENT GUSTS). THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY, GUSTING OVER 30 KT AT
TIMES. SEAS BUILD FROM 3-5 FT ON SATURDAY INTO 6-8 FT ON SUNDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY LATER MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 90 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 81 75 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 73 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...88-CHAI
LONG TERM....88-CHAI
AVIATION...88-CHAI
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