987
FXUS64 KBRO 170359
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1059 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
* COLD FRONT AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS: A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OVER
LAND AND WATER, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS.
* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60-80
PERCENT) FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (1-2", LOCALLY
3-4") OVER 48 HOURS, THOUGH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
POTENTIAL URBAN FLOODING AND RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
* SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15-30 DEGREES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* BEACH HAZARDS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED SOUTH AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE VERY WARM AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN DROP
TEMPERATURES 15-30 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TS AND TDS WITH A BLEND OF NBM AND NAM FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOW STILL AS WELL, WITH NAM BLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH BRO BY
MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S. A SURFACE LOW, STALLED BOUNDARY, AND COASTAL TROUGH
MAINTAINS A ROBUST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LEFTOVER
RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.
PWAT VALUES CLIMB TOWARDS 2 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WELL-ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. THIS SUPPORTS VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO OUR LAST BENEFICIAL RAINMAKING SYSTEM EASTER
WEEKEND THAT LEFT A WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL IN GAUGES FROM 1 TO 5
INCHES. AT THIS TIME, ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY 3-4 INCHES WHERE ANY RAINFALL PERSISTS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE ANY RAINFALL RATES CAN TOP 3 OR 4 INCHES PER HOUR,
BUT MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL, ACCUMULATING OVER
TWO DAYS.
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF, AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL BEACH
RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES, AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING AND
RETURNING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SCEC TO
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND POTENTIAL GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY
ON MONDAY AND KICK SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID NEXT WEEK, RETURNING MORE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, INCREASES WITH THE FRONT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 90 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 81 75 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 73 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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